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market analysis by pacosant

The propose of this page  is to study stock exchange market to forecast main direction and changes on dates.

 

 

 

05 Jan 09. I am still working in the process of understanding past big movements and what cause them. I have updated my S&P chart till 1950, and after several days playing with it, I can understand the market action better. First today chart explains by itseft what created the 2007 TOP. Again, we have PHI in action, but in this case it goes back to 1974 floor and 1987 TOP; if we add all of these to the comments we have made on Nov 22nd and Nov 9th, then we have the reasons for 2007 TOP. If I have known what I know right now I should be one of the reaches man in earth; but.....

 

 

Second chart is similar to the first one, but in this case, it  puts 1974, 1987 and 2008 bottoms in harmony. Again, this comment added to Dec 06th and Nov 22nd past comments, confirms that the low is in and now we can have an upward move till.....

.....to be continued soon.

Remember the chart is squared.

 

 09 Dec 08. Today I bring a past chart, from 1994 till today. With this chart I want to reinforce the incredible validity that PHI factor has to create important change of direction in the market. In the picture, arc "1" is measured from 1994 bottom to 2003 bottom, and now, as you can see, the PHI factor of that arc pass exactly over 2007 TOP.

It is always the same factor: PHI. The important thing is to square the chart and then look at it with the proper attitude.

Almost always, bottom to bottom measurement tend to produce tops in the PHI factor.

 

06 Dec 08. On last comment, 21st and 22nd of Nov, we were able to see the bottom of the market; and on those days we explained the market geometry among Mar 00, Mar 03, Oct 07 and Nov 08.

Today I bring a new chart that study previous drop, Oct 07-Nov 08. This chart is the same as the one posted on Nov 22nd, but in this case we have zoomed from Mar 03 till today. As you can see Mar 08 bottom is in PHI relationship with 07-08 whole drop; this type of movement structure is not new to me as I have already seen it in previous movements (1995-2000). Nevertheless we also have other particularities in that movement: May 08 - Nov 08 drop is also related to the whole drop by PHI / 2.

All of these, in my opinion, confirm the bottom of the year and a new upward move is in force. Last friday we saw the bottom of the first upward impulse: an exact 50% of downward correction of the first impulse measured from 21st Nov 08. Now the FIESTA can begin.

 

22 Nov 08, 15:40 GMT. After yesterday last hour action, 7% upward impulse, I confirm what we have said before. Market has signaled a very important low. Why?, because there is one of those harmonic market geometry relationship that was signaled by yesterday low. ONLY THAT; it is pure geometry. See side graph.

As you can see, yesterday (Nov 21st) low signaled a drop of 881 diagonal points (DP) from Oct 07 High.  But if we make 881*PHI we get 1425 DP, and that circle pass just exactly on Mar 03 lows; nor error at all. But if we continue multiplying it by PHI we will get 881*PHI*PHI = 2307 DP, and that circle pass exactly on Mar 00 TOP for the S&P.

Now we will move to one dimension: time; we are going to count calendar days (CD) from yesterday low:

till Mar 14th 07 (L) --- 618 CD = 1/PHI*1000

till Oct 10th 02 (L) --- 2234 CD = √5*1000; two days less to be perfect

till Sep 2st 01 (L) --- 2618 CD = PHI*PHI*1000

till Sep 06th 00 (H) --- 2998 CD; three days less to be 3000

till Jan 14th 00 (H) --- 3234 CD = 2*PHI; two days less to be perfect

 

To summarize: according to time dimension, from yesterday till tomorrow will be signaling an important change of direction. My opinion is that yesterday was an important LOW of the market. This LOW has been indicated by a two dimensional tool: market geometry; plus a one dimensional tool: time. If I have time, during this week-end I will try to check the other dimension: price.

 

09 Nov 08, 19:00 GMT. I`ve been silence for almost 5 months. As everybody can imagine, my forecast was totally wrong. To tell you the true, I have as possible alternative this 5 month drop in my radar screen. The problem was that I was so happy with the forecast presented here, the former charts, that they force me to continue with them (greed and possession). Now I am back; I will try to be more flexible, and to present mainly facts. That said, the more exact forecast the more possibilities for being wrong; and also more difficult is to give up the forecast.

In today's chart I try to present the reasons for last Octobre 07 TOP. The drop that goes from 00 to 02 year,  as you can see in attached chart, has the following structure: 1/√8, 1/√2, 1. And the

upward move from 02 till 07 year has also same structure: 1/√8, 1/√2, 1. Same relationship: change of direction.

Back to 00-02 drop, if we go to √5 of same downward impulse we will get past Oct lows. So from my personal geometry the bottom is in and now we should expect a nice rise.

Second chart brings here that Sep 00-Jul 02 drop is half of the movement from Sep 00-Oct 07; and also backward move Oct 08-Oct 07 y half of the movement Oct 08-Jul 02. So both movements are squared. From that perspective, I consider we have already seen 2008 lows.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Disclaimer: In any case do I intend to recommend buying or selling futures, stocks, commodities, etc. All is done    with the intention of studying stock exchange markets.